EU GDP growth

a look at the past: official economic growth

what's the official EU GDP growth data?

Latest GDP growth readings:

• Quarter-on-quarter: 0.2% - a standard pace of growth
• Year-on-year: 1.4% - below-trend (with long-term trend running at 1.6%)

EU commission forecast:

• Q4-2026: 1.2%, confirming the same pace of growth from the latest YoY reading to year-end
• Q4-2027: 1.4%
• Q4-2028: 1.3%

IntroGross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic performance of a country. It is calculated by summing the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period by a country.

Chart typeWe look at the evolution of GDP growth both on a quarterly and yearly basis and the ongoing forecast by the European commission.

InterpretationGDP growth measures provide official information on the past growth of a specific country or regions, not offering any specific insight on what is happening at present time, or what might happen in the future. To better guess what might happen in the future, leading indicators (as PMIs) are more useful to consider than the past GDP trajectory, on top of big picture authorities' predictions (revised periodically).

EU GDP components

analyzing economic contributors to growth

what's the biggest EU GDP contributor?

Components' growth stats:

• The top contributors to GDP are Consumption (growing at 0.5%) and Public spending (growing at 0.7%). Business investment and Public spending have provided a more sizeable contribution to GDP than usual.
• Business investment has now become the main support to GDP growth, which means good news to further boost productivity in the region. Consumption has provided the least sizeable contribution to GDP lately, and lower than usual. Finally Import growth has been higher than exports, meaning that trade had a negative impact on GDP growth.

Historical overview:

• The EU economic engine has been historically based on Consumption (53% of GDP) and Exports (49% of GDP). More recently, looking at the last 3 years, the most relevant components remain the same - Consumption and Exports - while their size to GDP has changed, moving down to 52.6% and up to 50.6% respectively.

IntroGDP is the sum of different components to economic growth: consumption (C), investment (I), government expenditures (G) and exports (X) minus imports (M). Here we look at which component over time, and currently, is contributing the most. We also check if the average contribution by each component is the usual one for the regional economy, or if there's an exception. Data is released quarterly.

ConsumptionConsumption is normally the largest GDP component, consisting of private household expenditures in the economy (durable goods, nondurable goods or services). Examples include food, rent, jewelry, gasoline or and medical expenses.

InvestmentsInvestments, also more technically defined as gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), are the sum of the acquired assets (minus disposals) intended for the production of other goods and services. Examples are machinery & equipment, stores, factories and inventories in general.

Government expendituresGovernment spending is the sum of final goods and services consumed by the government. Examples are salaries of public servants, military purchases or any investments by a government.

Exports & importsExports are goods and services that are produced in one country and sold to buyers in another, while imports are goods or services produced in a foreign country and consumed locally in another country. Exports and imports make up international trade.