PMIs at 51.2 have been declining since last month (continuing its negative quarterly trend); in more detail, they moved down by -1.2 points (from 52.4 to 51.2 points) since the previous reading and moved down by -1.00 points (from 52.2) over the quarter
PMIs are positive, indicating fair growth to come next
IntroBased on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across multiple industries, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) summarizes whether business conditions - and thus economic growth - are either expanding, staying the same, or contracting, as viewed by purchasing managers.
Chart typeIn this chart we show the Manufacturing PMI, a weighted average of manufacturing and service sectors together.
How to read itA PMI reading above 50 indicates that the economy is likely to expand in the upcoming months (positive GDP growth). Conversely, a PMI below 50 often signals a slowdown in economic activity and can be linked to a decline or slower growth in GDP.
Market implicationsHigher growth prospects are likely to bring higher company earnings in the future, and thus normally push equities up, same things equal.
US Consumer confidence & retail sales
Consumer confidence & retail sales in US
consumer spending trends
how do US consumers feel about the future?
Latest data - confidence: 31-12-2026, retail sales: 31-12-2026
Consumer confidence:
has now reached 56.4
has moved up by 3.5 points (from 52.9 to 56.4 points) vs a month ago
remain very weak, reporting expectations for an ongoing economic contraction, improving since last month (in a positive quarterly trend)
Retail sales growth (YoY):
the latest reading shows annual growth at 3.05%
growth moved up by 1.0% (from 2.1 to 3.0%)
such pace of growth remain fragile in negative territory, indicating mild economic contraction to come next, improving since last month (in a positive quarterly trend)
The 3-month correlation between consumer confidence and retail sales is currently positive and high at 0.94.
In summary rising confidence, positively correlated with retail sales, is pushing consumers to spend more, with higher retail sales growth likely to support future economic prospects.
Consumer confidenceConsumer confidence measures how consumers are feeling about their expected financial situation: happy and confident consumers are likely to spend more, while unhappy consumers are likely to spend less.
ImplicationsHappy consumers spending more will stimulate the economy, pushing growth up. Unhappy consumers will save more and spend less, a behavior that in aggregate will cause the economy to slow down and eventually flip into recession.
Retail salesRetail sales track consumer demand for finished goods and are key to exactly confirm - as indicated above - how much consumers have been spending as of late, taking the pulse to the economy and tracking any inflationary pressures that may exist.