US economic activity - what's the latest

UNITED STATES

Consumer confidence & Retail sales

Very low CONFIDENCE | 49.8
Strong SALES | 7.5%
01-06-201601-08-201701-10-201801-12-201901-02-202101-04-202201-06-202301-08-202401-10-202540.050.060.070.080.090.0100.0110.0-12%-7%-2%3%8%13%18%23%
UNITED STATES

Industrial Production

Strong | 102.7
30-06-201631-08-201731-10-201831-12-201928-02-202130-04-202230-06-202331-08-202431-10-202585.090.095.0100.0105.0
UNITED STATES

Weekly Economic Index

Solid | 3.1
25-06-201626-08-201727-10-201828-12-201927-02-202130-04-202224-06-202331-08-202425-10-20251.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

Insights

CONCEPTS

Consumer Confidence measures financial optimism to predict future spending, while Retail Sales track real-world consumer behavior. Industrial Production measures economic output in manufacturing, mining, utilities and construction. Export Growth tracks foreign demand for domestic goods. The Weekly Economic indicator is the high-speed cousin of the PMI: if PMIs capture monthly corporate sentiment, the WEI condenses 10 high-frequency, hard data points into a real-time look at GDP growth.

CURRENT READINGS

  • US Consumer confidence is at 49.8 points (Very low), while Retail Sales are growing at 7.5% (Strong). Industrial production is running at 102.7 (Strong level), improving since last month (in a positive quarterly trend). Export growth is running at 12.6%, up by 2.6% (Very Strong).

  • The Weekly Economic Indicator (WEI) stands at 3.1%, a Solid print
  • MARKET IMPLICATIONS

  • In summary, a pessimistic but resilient consumer continues to drive retail spending, supporting a robust industrial sector and keeping the broader economy expanding. In parallel, the WEI highlights a context of very strong growth ahead.

  • Elevated consumer sentiment typically fuels robust spending and drives economic expansion while collapsing confidence triggers defensive saving, a behavior that can cause the economy to slow-down. When resilient spending takes place despite low confidence, it signals a pessimistic but well-capitalized consumer.

    Industrial production help us prove if soft sentiment data is translating into hard corporate revenue. Surging output drives capital expenditure, hiring and earnings, acting as a major tailwind for equities.

    The Weekly Economic Indicator (WEI) acts as our real-time radar, condensing high-frequency economic activity into a single rolling growth metric that bridges the gap between these monthly data releases.

    Rising exports indicate strong foreign demand that injects external capital into the domestic economy, driving outperformance in globally exposed equities. The opposite is true with fading retail spending, industrial production and exports.