US PMIs - a view on upcoming growth in the economy

UNITED STATES

Composite PMI

Fair Expansion: 51.7
05-06-202303-11-202303-04-202405-09-202405-02-202503-07-202503-12-202505-05-20264045505560
UNITED STATES

Services PMI

Fair Expansion: 51
05-06-202303-11-202303-04-202405-09-202405-02-202503-07-202503-12-202505-05-20264045505560
UNITED STATES

Manufacturing PMI

Strong Expansion: 54.5
01-06-202301-11-202301-04-202403-09-202403-02-202501-07-202501-12-20254045505560

Insights

CONCEPT

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading indicator measuring the health of the economy. Based on surveys of purchasing managers, it helps investors gauge where economic growth is going. A reading above 50 indicates expansion compared to the previous month, while a reading below 50 represents a contraction.

CURRENT READINGS
  • The US Composite PMI (services, manufacturing and construction together) is at 51.7, signaling an expected fair expansion in the wider economy, declining since last month (continuing its negative quarterly trend). The US Services PMI (the largest portion of EU GDP) is at 51, signaling an expected fair expansion in the sector output and declining since last month (continuing its negative quarterly trend). The US Manufacturing PMI is at 54.5, signaling an expected strong expansion in the sector output and improving fast since last month (in a positive quarterly trend).
MECHANICS & MEANING

Higher growth prospects (rising PMIs) generally forecast higher corporate earnings, supporting bullish equity sentiment. Conversely, contracting PMIs signal economic headwinds and defensive market rotations.