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The Macro Context
EUROPE: MARKET EXPECTATIONS
GROWTH
issues
INFLA
stable | higher
RATES
stable
+
GROWTH DRIVERS
Composite PMI
48.8
Manufacturing PMI
52.2
Services PMI
47.6
Consumer Confidence
-19.4
INFLATION
Inflation
3%
Core Inflation
2.2%
5y Breakevens
1.9%
5y5y Inflation FWD
2.3%
Commodity prices
136.3
JOBS
Unemployment
6%
Hiring Expectations
93.2%
Wages
3.5%
MONETARY POLICY
Rate Futures
25bp
QT: flows
€-24.7bn
Business Lending
6.6
Mortgages
-2.4
US: MARKET EXPECTATIONS
GROWTH
mixed
INFLA
stable | higher
RATES
stable
+
GROWTH DRIVERS
WEI
2.96%
Composite PMI
51.7
Manufacturing PMI
54.5
Services PMI
51.0
Consumer Sentiment
53.3
INFLATION
US Inflation
3.3%
Core Inflation
2.7%
5y Breakevens
2.58%
5y5y Inflation FWD
2.26%
Commodity prices
136.3
JOBS
Initial claims
200k
Non-Farm payrolls
178k
Unemployment
4.3%
Wage Growth
3.5%
MONETARY POLICY
Rate Futures
0bp
QT: flows
$-6.7bn
Business Lending
8.1
Consumer Lending
2.0