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The Macro Context
EU: MARKET EXPECTATIONS
−
GROWTH
mixed
INFLA
possibly higher
RATES
stable
−
GROWTH DRIVERS
Composite PMI
52.1
Manufacturing PMI
52.8
Services PMI
51.7
Consumer Confidence
-15.1
INFLATION
Inflation
2.9%
Core Inflation
2.5%
5y Breakevens
1.7%
5y5y Inflation FWD
2.3%
Commodity prices
138.9
JOBS
Unemployment
6%
Hiring Expectations
97.7%
Wages
3.3%
MONETARY POLICY
Rate Futures
50bp
QT: flows
€-15.4bn
Business Lending
10.1
Mortgages
2.0
US: MARKET EXPECTATIONS
+
GROWTH
mixed
INFLA
possibly higher
RATES
nodata
+
GROWTH DRIVERS
WEI
2.56%
Composite PMI
56.0
Manufacturing PMI
53.2
Services PMI
56.8
Consumer Sentiment
49.5
INFLATION
US Inflation
3.5%
Core Inflation
2.8%
5y Breakevens
2.31%
5y5y Inflation FWD
2.33%
Commodity prices
138.9
JOBS
Initial claims
203k
Non-Farm payrolls
-23k
Unemployment
4.1%
Wage Growth
3.2%
MONETARY POLICY
Rate Futures
25bp
QE: flows
$3.8bn
Business Lending
0.0
Consumer Lending
6.7