Financial conditions in the US

UNITED STATES

Lending to consumers

NEUTRAL standards
Number of Banks tightening lending standards on Card Loans (QoQ)Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25-40%-20%20%40%60%
UNITED STATES

Lending to Corporates

TIGHTER Standards
Number of Banks tightening standards on Corporate Loans (QoQ)Sep 16Sep 17Sep 18Sep 19Sep 20Sep 21Sep 22Sep 23Sep 24Sep 25-20%20%40%60%
UNITED STATES

Financial conditions

VERY EASY
Jun 16Apr 17Feb 18Dec 18Oct 19Aug 20Jun 21Apr 22Feb 23Dec 23Oct 24Aug 25Jun 26-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.2

Insights

CONCEPT

Financial conditions quantify overall market stress by bundling interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices, and volatility into a single metric. This acts as the ultimate leading indicator for bank behavior: when conditions ease banks turn aggressive in pursuing new business, lowering lending standards and fueling economic growth. When conditions tighten, banks turn defensive, shutting access to credit and slowing down private investment.

CURRENT READINGS
  • Financial Conditions in the US are VERY EASY (at -0.50) and have remained unchanged vs the previous week's average. The number of banks tightening lending standards vs past quarter on credit card loans is 2.0% - meaning that consumer lending standards are in NEUTRAL territory - while on corporate loans is 8.1%, translating into TIGHTER business lending standards.
MARKET IMPLICATIONS

  • Easy financial conditions and ample liquidity in healthy markets is not matching the willingness of banks to extend credit decisively, as tighter standards are applied to households and businesses: it is a sign of mature cycle.

  • Think of financial conditions as the green light for credit availability. Historically, easy conditions (below 0.15) grease the wheels of the economy by making loans cheap and accessible. When conditions cross into tight territory (above 0.15–0.20), the credit taps start to close, and economic growth starts to stall.