Where Are We in the Economic Cycle? | Cartesio Macro Tracker

Economic Cycle - where are we?

The economic cycle

Insights

27-08-2026

CONCEPT

This is a master MAP displaying the exact GPS coordinates of where we are in the economic cycle, powered by Cartesio’s analysis of 30+ key variables and refreshed daily. Because every cycle phase dictates a unique set of winning and losing assets, identifying the current regime is the foundation for optimizing your portfolio allocation.

CURRENT READINGS

Europe - we are in the "acceleration phase: later". We are clearly into a period of faster economic growth, improving consumer and investor confidence.

US - we are in the "peak phase: earlier". We are in a period of peak economic growth in this cycle: peak GDP, maximum employment, strong consumer confidence.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

Europe: Portfolio: time to go overweight stocks, preferring cyclical sectors, growth and momentum factors.

US: at peak time we should normally have maximum exposure to equity risk and focus on the momentum style, limiting exposure to safer bonds limited while eventually focusing on spread products.

The economic cycle reflects the natural rotation between expansion and contraction, driven by growth and inflation regimes. Cartesio uses this cyclical anchor for the medium-term strategic asset allocation of our portfolios (including Pantarai ADAPT) before applying tactical overlays.