Overview
Recession
Yield curves

Economic Cycle - where are we?

The economic cycle

US
EU
LONG-TERM TREND GROWTHRecoveryExpansionAccelerationPeakMaturityLate CycleSlow-downRecessionEUUS

Insights

22-06-2026
CONCEPT

This is a master MAP displaying the exact GPS coordinates of where we are in the economic cycle, powered by Cartesio’s analysis of 30+ key variables and refreshed daily. Because every cycle phase dictates a unique set of winning and losing assets, identifying the current regime is the foundation for optimizing your portfolio allocation.

CURRENT READINGS

  • Europe - we are in the "maturity phase: earlier". Growth stabilizes after its peak while unemployment should be at its lowest. This tends to be a sustainable phase of growth that normally lasts long before slowing. Rising inflation and tightening monetary policy are likely at some point.
  • US - we are in the "maturity phase: earlier". Same structural dynamics apply.

    • MARKET IMPLICATIONS

    Europe and US: when the cycle reaches maturity, equity exposure should remain elevated (as stocks are historically resilient in this phase) while focusing on the next set of leaders - from quality to cyclicals, broader international exposure and large caps. Exposure to defensive assets such as gold or bonds should be present: in this phase it is generally a good time to buy longer-dated bonds if inflation is not an issue; but focus on shorter dated bonds or floating rate notes if inflation is rising..

    The economic cycle reflects the natural rotation between expansion and contraction, driven by growth and inflation regimes. Cartesio uses this cyclical anchor for the medium-term strategic asset allocation of our portfolios (including Pantarai ADAPT) before applying tactical overlays.

    Overview
    Recession
    Yield curves