Commodity prices

monitoring daily price changes for all commodities

How are commodity prices doing?

The commodity index has reached 130.2392 points.

In summary

• 1 month - up by 4.4%
• 3 month - up by 12.2%
• YTD - up by 16.3%
• 1 year - up by 24.0%

Currency impact:

• a stronger USD did not stop commodities from rising over the past few weeks

IntroHere we monitor the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), is composed of 24 exchange-traded futures contracts on physical commodities, representing 22 different commodities weighted to reflect their economic significance and market liquidity.

Index basketthe index includes a wide range of commodities categorized into six sectors: energy, grains, softs (agriculture products), livestock, industrial and precious metals.

Key dynamicsCommodity prices tend to rise when: (1) demand exceeds supply, (2) when there are disruptions to supply (including weather events), (3) when macro factors such as faster global growth, lower USD or lower interest rates are at play. Conversely, oversupply, reduced demand, slower global growth, higher interest rates and a more expensive USD typically lead to price declines.

Commodities index momentum

monitoring the commodity index price trend

Buy or sell commodities on trend?

Investment view

• our current tactical, trend-based view is: overweight

Index price trend

• right now, the current price momentum is range-bound with no clear trend in sight
• in more detail, the current price is moving laterally, transitioning in the middle of moving averages that are crossing each other
• in the past 100 days the index price moved higher by 2409 basis points, reaching 130.24 points

IntroMomentum investing is a strategy that involves buying assets that have been performing well and selling those that have been performing poorly, based on the idea that recent trends will continue. This can include crypto currencies and tokens.

Chart guideIn this chart we observe the "dance" of the commodity index price around selected (and unusual) moving averages (MA). By observing where the price currently stands against some short-term MAs, we can infer the likelihood of a positive vs a negative trend in the future.

Market implicationsThe direction of the current index price vs selected MAs can inform trading decisions on commodities in general.