Cycle Monitor

Economic Cycle - in which phase are we today?

EUROPE: cycle phase
Recovery
Expansion
Acceleration
Peak
Maturity
Late Cycle
Slow-down
Recession
UNITED STATES: cycle phase
Recovery
Expansion
Acceleration
Peak
Maturity
Late Cycle
Slow-down
Recession
Analysis

Economic Cycle: EU & US phase

Where are we in the cycle?

Latest Insights
LATEST UPDATE: 23-03-2026
EUROPE
maturity phase: later
  • Growth has stabilized and may start to slow down at some point. Unemployment should be at its lowest. Keep an eye on inflation, which may start rising from here.
  • Portfolio: balance out equity exposure - focusing on quality, large caps, international diversification and perhaps value style - with defensive assets, such as gold and government bonds (longer-dated if inflation is not an issue, if not shorter dated).
UNITED STATES
maturity phase: later
  • Same cycle phase as Europe - see details on the left
  • Same portfolio tips as for Europe
User manual
GUIDE & IMPLICATIONS
Intro

Regime shifts reflect fluctuations in GDP and employment.

Chart Guide

16 nuances determine regional cycle health.

Strategic Impact

The most powerful tool for tactical allocation.

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