Oil price

monitoring daily price changes

How's the oil price doing?

The oil price is currently at $98.88 per barrel.

Change:

• 1 month - up by 21.5%
• 3 month - up by 54.0%
• YTD - up by 59.7%
• 1 year - up by 36.6%

IntroHere we monitor the Brent oil price, the world's most important oil market benchmark setting the price for much of the oil traded globally.

Factors influencing oil pricesKey factors influencing oil prices are demand & supply dynamics (with supply being centrally managed by OPEC), global economic conditions, geopolitical events, inventories available.

Key dynamicsOil prices can rise because of (1) tighter oil supply as managed by OPEC, or just lower oil inventories available, (2) higher oil demand, normally driven by faster global growth, (3) disruption fears emerging from wars close to oil production centers.

Viceversa, oil prices can fall because of (1) easier oil supply as managed by OPEC, or just higher oil inventories available, (2) lower oil demand, normally driven by slower global growth or recessions, (3) easing of geopolitical conflicts.

Oil demand & supply

forecasting oil price changes

Where will the oil price go next?

Where we come from - a look at the last 12 months:

• the oil market has continued to remain in oversupply, as the latest build-up in oil inventories can also confirm.

Looking ahead:

• supply is going to exceed demand, both in the near future and 18 months from now too, with inventories expected to build-up.
• in light of the above, oil prices are likely to go down from here.

IntroWe use the data & forecast offered by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) - an agency that provides independent and impartial energy information related to oil and other energy sources - to better understand what is likely to happen to oil prices in the near future.

Demand, supply & inventoriesWhile it is hard (if not impossible) to make accurate predictions around geopolitical conflicts, it is more reasonable to derive from current data and sound assumptions on demand, supply and inventories of oil what can happen to the oil price for the next few months. This is exactly what the EIA does, and we make their most recent studies available here, together with our own interpretation.

Chart guideUsing EIA data and forecasting, we share in the chart a long history of observed demand & supply of oil, together with change in inventories. We zoom on the more recent past (12 months) and we report forecasted demand, supply and subsequent change in inventory for the next 24 months.

Tracking expected inventory changes over the next few months is particularly informative: inventory drawdowns that could show up in the chart ('next 24 months') will likely push oil higher in the upcoming months, while inventory build-ups will likely push oil prices lower.