has continued to trend down recently, both in the past quarter (-0.2%) and last month (-0.1%) since a month ago
low, in the bottom range of 10-year observations
Insights:
The progress of unemployment rate confirms that the economy has been doing very well so far an we are at a mature point in the cycle.
IntroThe unemployment rate is the share of the labour force (aged 15 to 74) in a specific region without work. Unemployed people are those of a working age who do not have a job, are available for work and also have taken specific steps to find a job in the previous 4 weeks.
Economic consequencesPeople who do not work normally do not perceive a salary and do not have an income to rely on. Without income there is no spending (=consumption). And without consumption there is no economic growth. It is clear then that a healthy economy needs to employ as many people as possible.
Economists closely watch the unemployment rate to either confirm the healthy status of an economy (when low) or to realize when an economy effectively enters into recession (with a gradual increase of unemployment, month after month).
Market implicationsA strong (positive) nonfarm payrolls report - let's say higher than expected job growth - can boost investor confidence, leading to higher stock prices. On the other side, a weak (negative) report - let's say lower than expected job growth or even job losses - can cause market volatility and lead to a decline in stock prices.
In parallel, when the unemployment rate is low, more people are employed and have disposable income, leading to increased consumer spending. This wpuld boost demand for goods and services, potentially increasing corporate profits and ultimately driving up stock prices. Viceversa, high unemployment would lead to decreased consumer spending, as people have less disposable income. This can result in lower corporate profits and a decline in stock prices.
Employment expectations
EU employment expectations
business expectations on future hiring
where will hiring go from here?
Latest update: 2026-02
Future hiring expectations:
have reached 98.5 points - they are at a low point
have continued to trend down recently, both in the past quarter (-0.3 points) and last month (-0.7 points)
The decline in hiring expectations suggests that the economy is expected to weaken further.
IntroThe European Commission produces the employment expectations indicator to summarise companies’ employment plans in the four surveyed business sectors in EU (industry, services, retail trade, construction). It provides a timely indication of changes in expected dependent employment at EU Member states. The indicator is constructed as a weighted average of the employment expectations in all four surveyed business sectors.
How to read the chartThe series has a long term mean scaled to 100. Values greater than 100 indicate that companies employment expectations are high by historical standards, while the opposite holds true for values below 100. As the series standard deviation is imposed at 10, assuming approximate normality, this means that in about 68% of the cases the indicator will be within the range of 90 to 110. Values above 110 or below 90 are considered unusual.
Market implicationsImprovements in future hiring expectations above 100 suggest a current/upcoming economic expansion, with subsequent increase in company earnings. Regional stocks would benefit, same things equal. In parallel, a deterioration in hiring expectations below 100 would suggest a current/upcoming economic contraction, with subsequent decrease in company earnings. Regional stocks would suffer, same things equal.