is currently at 4.4%, low, in the bottom range of 10-year observations
its recent trend has been volatile, going down (by -0.1%) in the quarter and up (by 0.1%) last month CHECK FIGURES & REPHRASE
Nonfarm payrolls:
are currently at -92k, moved down by -98k against the average payrolls for the past three months and down by -218k since last month REPHRASE
In summary: Nonfarm payrolls are low and moving lower, suggesting a weaker economy. The progress of unemployment rate confirms that the economy has been doing very well so far an we are at a mature point in the cycle.
IntroThe US unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force without a job, but able to work and actively searching for work.
Nonfarm payrolls instead count the number of new people being employed in goods-producing industries (manufacturing, construction) and service-providing industries, excluding those in agriculture, private households, and non-profit organizations. It reflects the number of jobs added or lost in the previous month.
Various definitions of unemploymentSeveral definitions of unemployment exist in the US. The most commonly cited unemployment rate is the U-3 (shown in the chart), defining unemployed people as those willing and available to work and who have actively sought work within the past 4 weeks. Other measures (U-1 to U-6) look at labor underutilization.
Economic implicationsNon-farm payrolls are a widely watched economic indicator that can reveal insights into the health of the labor market, business conditions, and overall economic trends.
Unemployment is also closely watched by economists, as any rise in the unemployment rate may be a confirmation of a weakening economy, and - after crossing certain thresholds - eventually of an unfolding recession. Viceversa, any decrease in unemployment would confirm that the economy is turning more and more resilient, with rising economic growth.
Market implicationsA strong (positive) nonfarm payrolls report - let's say higher than expected job growth - can boost investor confidence, leading to higher stock prices. On the other side, a weak (negative) report - let's say lower than expected job growth or even job losses - can cause market volatility and lead to a decline in stock prices.
In parallel, when the unemployment rate is low, more people are employed and have disposable income, leading to increased consumer spending. This wpuld boost demand for goods and services, potentially increasing corporate profits and ultimately driving up stock prices. Viceversa, high unemployment would lead to decreased consumer spending, as people have less disposable income. This can result in lower corporate profits and a decline in stock prices.
US initial jobless claims
US initial claims
initial jobless claims & pulse of the economy
how many people has gone jobless last week?
Latest weekly data: 14-03-2026
Initial claims:
the latest reading is at 205k, in the bottom range of the last 3 years
the rolling 4-week moving average (to smoothen weekly volatility) is at 211k
have continued to trend down recently, both in the month (-6.0k) and since last week (-8.0k)
What does it mean?
Initial claims remain low, and the recent trend has been moving further down: the job market remains healthy, according to this reading
IntroJobless claims counts people filing to receive unemployment insurance benefits in the US. There are two categories of jobless claims: initial, which comprises people filing for the first time (and what we look at in the chart above), and continuing, which consists of unemployed people who have already been receiving unemployment benefits in the previous weeks.
Chart guideJobless claims are an important leading indicator of the state of the employment situation and the health of the economy. In the chart above we show initial jobless claims in their unfiltered weekly released, but also we show for the past year the 4-week moving average to smoothen short-term volatility, and capture the current upward or downward trend more clearly.
Economic implicationsGiven that unemployment and non-farm payroll stats are issued only once a month, initial jobless claims are a key leading indicator to grasp earlier - as they are issued on a weekly basis - the state of the employment situation and subsequently the current health of the US economy.
Market implicationsLower initial claims indicate a stronger economy, potentially benefitting stocks - same things equal. Higher initial claims indicate a weaker economy, potentially affecting stocks and benefitting government bond yields - same things equal.