Equity valuation - earnings vs price

EUROZONE

EU Forward P/E - Stoxx 600

30-09-200930-06-201131-03-201331-12-201430-09-201630-06-201831-03-202031-12-202130-09-202330-06-20258x10x12x14x16x18x20xcheaperfair valueexpensivemedian: 13.9x
Insights | EU

The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay today for EUR 1 of corporate profits. It can be calculated on the latest realized earnings, or on future expectations - in this case it is called Forward P/E. It determines whether an index is fundamentally cheap or expensive. A high P/E implies the market is pricing in rapid future growth and turned more expensive. A low P/E suggests a value discount due to underlying structural risks, and a cheaper market.

CURRENT READINGS

Looking at the latest realized earnings, the Stoxx 600 has a P/E of 14.7x, in the fair value range
The ratio is predicted to move lower (to 14.4x, as earnings are predicted to increase) with next quarter's expected earnings.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

The Stoxx 600 forward P/E ratio at 14.4x is at fair value. In general terms, an expensive P/E ratio will invite value-based investors to sell and momentum investors to buy stocks. An cheap P/E ratio will invite value-based investors to buy and momentum investors to sell/stay away from stocks.

UNITED STATES

US Forward P/E - S&P 500

31-12-198831-12-199231-12-199631-12-200031-12-200431-12-200831-12-201231-12-201631-12-202031-12-202410x15x20x25x30xcheaperfair valueexpensivemedian: 22.4x
Insights | US

Refer to the intro above about the P/E ratio. We also track the Earnings yield (EY) in the left chart, the exact mathematical inverse of P/E. Derived from dividing EPS/stock price, it helps investors to compare the theoretical yield of stocks to government bonds, and thus clarify if stocks or bonds provide a better return at any given time.

CURRENT READINGS

The S&P 500 index has a trailing P/E of 20.4x - in the fair value range - and a forward P/E of 20.6x for next quarter.

MARKET IMPLICATIONS

The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio at 14.4x is at fair value. In general terms, an expensive P/E ratio will invite value-based investors to sell and momentum investors to buy stocks. An cheap P/E ratio will invite value-based investors to buy and momentum investors to sell/stay away from stocks.